The hidden forces behind decisions to stay or go
Who moves in the face of climate change depends not only on physical risks but also on deep ties to place.
There’s a new paper out this week that is interesting for a couple of reasons.
It explores why people say they move or stay put in the face of climate change. Instead of using aid agency data, censuses or statistical models, this research asks people directly whether they have moved or might move in the future. It focuses on their reasons for staying or leaving and the forces they believe shape those decisions.
It’s also unusual in that it investigates migration decisions in both Global North and Global South countries.
There is a lot in the paper. Here are a couple of the findings I think are most interesting.
Income has a big effect on whether people decide to stay or go when faced with climate impacts. Better-off people are more likely to use migration as a way of surviving and adapting to climate change.
This applies globally and at household level. People in rich countries are more likely to say they would consider moving to avoid climate impacts. Wealthier households in low-income countries are more likely to view migration favourably than their poorer neighbours.
Politicians often argue that speeding up economic development in climate‑vulnerable areas will reduce migration. The belief is that by boosting resilience, fewer people will be forced to leave for places like the UK or Europe.
The reality is more complex, as this new research demonstrates. As people become more economically secure, they may be more likely to choose migration as a coping strategy. This is not an argument against economic development in climate‑vulnerable areas, but we must recognise it will not always slow or stop migration linked to climate change.
Social and psychological factors also play a huge role in migration decisions. The researchers found that someone’s self-confidence in their ability to migrate successfully plays a huge role in the decision. This may seem straightforward, but many migration studies still overlook it. A lot of the literature focuses on the climate impacts themselves and factors such as age and income to explain who moves and who doesn’t. This study is important because it reveals that psychological factors like self-belief in your ability to migrate play a huge role too.
The research also found that place attachment played an important role. We all have strong or weak place attachments. Some people feel deeply rooted to where they live and see it as part of their identity. Others feel little connection at all. The researchers asked people how connected they felt to their current location using the Abbreviated Place Attachment Scale. A person’s score on this scale strongly influenced whether they were likely to move when facing climate change impacts.
People who feel more rooted to home are more likely to tough it out and hope things improve. People who feel less deeply connected are more likely to move.
All of this matters because it shows that migration decisions are shaped by more than economics or climate impacts alone. Understanding these human factors helps us understand the forces that will shape these new patterns of movement.