Age will play a big role in who gets to move
We know that the impacts of climate will not be felt eqaully. Age is likely to be a key factor in who can move and who gets trapped.
This new paper on climate, migration, and age is worth a read. However, it's important to remember a few things about the climate-migration dynamic.
The paper argues that sea-level rise will drive migration in the US, leading to a demographic shift as younger people, more able or willing to move, leave certain areas. This will result in some places aging as young people depart, while destination locations will become younger as young people arrive.
This analysis is crucial for understanding the needs of communities on the move and those who stay behind.
Yet, it's important to acknowledge that the climate-migration dynamic is not as straightforward as sea-level rise equals young people moving. Other climate-related events, such as droughts and sudden disasters like hurricanes, are likely to alter the US map before the sea starts lapping at people's doorsteps. (It goes without saying that many non-climate factors also drive migration).
Age is not the sole determinant of mobility, especially in the US. Racialized communities in the US are more likely to live in climate-vulnerable locations, making race, as well as age, significant factors in determining who will be impacted and who will need to move. Climate gentrification may occur as those with the means to relocate purchase property in areas perceived as safer, thereby displacing others into more climate-vulnerable locations.
Generational wealth differences are another key issue. In the US and Europe, older people are significantly better off than their younger counterparts due to factors like the erosion of secure, well-paid work and the rising cost of housing.
This generational gap could significantly influence how climate change shapes migration in the US.
Climate impacts erode livelihoods, leaving people without the resources to move. Migration comes with costs and risks, and as people are pushed further into poverty by climate impacts, they may reach a point where migration becomes impossible, even if desired.
This dynamic is essential to consider when thinking about age and climate-driven migration. Younger people in the US are likely to be in more precarious financial situations, and climate change may drive them into poverty faster than their older counterparts.
It's possible that climate change may reduce young Americans' ability to move, and their wealthier parents may find it easier to migrate to safer locations.
Another key issue is that much of our understanding of the climate-migration dynamic comes from data gathered in the Global South, with much less research on how climate change will drive internal migration in wealthy countries.
I'm not suggesting that age isn't an important factor in climate and migration; it certainly is. But it must be considered within a broader context of other demographic factors, especially race and wealth.